The exact year of Jesus’s birth is uncertain, but scholars estimate it likely occurred between 6 BCE and 4 BCE. This estimation is based on historical, biblical, and astronomical evidence, as well as early records. Here's an overview of why these years are considered the most probable:
1. The Reign of King Herod
- According to the Gospel of Matthew, Jesus was born during the reign of Herod the Great (Matthew 2:1), who is said to have ordered the massacre of male infants in Bethlehem (known as the "Massacre of the Innocents").
- Historical records indicate that Herod died in 4 BCE, likely in the spring. Jesus must have been born before Herod’s death, pushing the date to 4 BCE or earlier.
2. The Census of Quirinius
- Luke’s Gospel mentions a census conducted during the governorship of Quirinius (Luke 2:1–2), which brought Joseph and Mary to Bethlehem. However, this creates a chronological issue:
- Quirinius governed Syria and conducted a well-documented census in 6 CE, nearly a decade after Herod’s death. Some scholars believe Luke conflated two events or referred to an earlier, undocumented census.
- Alternatively, this could be a theological rather than historical detail to situate Jesus in Bethlehem, fulfilling Messianic prophecy.
3. Astronomical Evidence
- The Star of Bethlehem, mentioned in Matthew 2:2, has prompted speculation about astronomical events that might align with Jesus’s birth. Proposed events include:
- A conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in 7 BCE, visible in the night sky and possibly interpreted by astrologers (like the Magi) as significant.
- A nova or comet, such as Halley's Comet (visible in 12 BCE) or another celestial phenomenon.
- These events suggest a date range from 7 to 5 BCE.